About an hour left to go...

Come on, we've still got one person who hasn't voted yet. If someone doesn't do something soon, then we've basically given the wolves a free day, between mukpid mistress being eaten and James quitting. We've got to make a move. (And might I suggest that the move is to vote Sanguinary off, I'm pretty confident about this one)

I'm sorry guys, I refuse to give the wolves a free day. I might be making a mistake here, but to me, anything's better than sitting around not doing anything. I'm going back to my original gut feeling.

UNVOTE: SanguinaryScientist
VOTE: Haunted Water




This might just get me voted off next round, but anything's better than giving the wolves a free turn.

You know, lynching the wrong person is a lot worse than lynching no one at all.

I have to agree with TT, voting off a townie is worse than giving the wolves a "free turn."

Well we could either
A - not kill anyone, letting the wolves have a free kill and not trying to lynch them
B - kill one of them, progressing like normal
C - Kill a townie, and mistaking them for someone else and try to get them the next round


I'm going with B, but I don't know who to vote for, since the first round is always a blind swing

A well-run one.

I approve of the way Chill is running this game. He's keeping everything organized and fair for everyone involved.
...I actually don't like it when dead/removed people are allowed to post in the thread, despite the information embargo. It's far too distracting.

Night 2 starts now and ends May 2nd at 8.30am GMT+2, or when all actions have been submitted.

What the fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
Who ever voted for him gets a gold star

gg guys.
You've made WWXX a memorable one for the ages.

That was a fast night.

Deaths:
mudkip mistriss-Zelda: Broken to death Night 1
Haunted Water-Dovakhiin: Stoned Day 1
Argonaut457-Kal'reegar: Decapitated Night 2

Day 2 starts now and ends Wednesday May 8th at 6pm GMT+2.

Argo sacrificed his life to vote out a wolf. What a noble way to go.

The wolves are furious. They've already lost a member on day one, and in their anger, they killed Argo for revenge. And we already took out HW, who's pretty shrewd, so they've lost the edge in having him. However, I noticed something. Last round, during the deadlock, Argo was the only one who came forward and changed his vote (saving us in the process), when no one else would. Why? I have a theory. HW and SS are/were both wolves. The three wolves all voted for people other than the two of them, which were the major band-wagons for the round. When it was tied, they hoped that it would end tied, so they would both escape the lynch, so intentionally did not change their votes. Who didn't vote for either of the presumed wolves? Sanguinary, GhostPony, Drago_girl, Haunted Water, and Cherrygrove, who didn't vote at all.

HW is eliminated, so we are left with SS, GP, DG, and CG. (abbreviations make life so much easier)

So here's the logical path to go down. SS is a wolf. And one of the other three is a wolf as well. My gut says Cherrygrove, since he normally is much more active, and would have taken more of a part in the last round if he was innocent. However, I could be wrong, and it could be DG of GP. But honestly, if I'm right, then we pretty much have this game in the bag. Seer, tomorrow night, if Sanguinary is voted off today and is confirmed a wolf, investigate one of the other three suspects, and if you get the last wolf, reveal yourself to the village and tell us all who the wolf is. Priest, protect none of the suspects, and instead protect any one of the rest of us, and you might get a lucky save if you predict accordingly. There's no point in trying to save one of the suspects anyway, because the wolves would have to be stupid to slay one of them, the only other major suspects, when they're already in such a dire situation.

And that, my friends, is how we'll win the first Werewolf for the village since who knows how long.

Now, for my vote.

VOTE: SANGUINARYSCIENTIST

I know that because of this analysis, I've got a strong chance of being killed tomorrow night, but my post will already be out there, and the evidence is undeniable. And if I die to save the village, so be it. I'll be more than happy enough whether I live to see the conclusion or not.

I didn't die! And people listened to me and lynched a werewolf. This game is going much better than usual.


And I was just typing up my vote change at the same times as him Good thing I didn't submit that though.


I was right and I'm not dead. And you may be wrong (but I doubt it), in which case the WWs might kill you to make it look like you're right.


VOTE: SANGUINARYSCIENTIST
I told you that you were next.

If were right about SS, then we only need the last WW to slip up and we win.

Whew I finally read through this thread. A lot of stuff went down ;o

Twist, as DNA said, that was Gambler's fallacy.

So of the original 15, four are dead: James, Mudkip Mistress, Haunted Water (WW) and Argonaut.

Here are the people that I believe have been cleared:

DNA - I can't pretend I didn't see this viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=50#p494291
DragoBoy - based on this viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=75#p494313 (and other posts)
Wailord_2 - based on this viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=75#p494306 and this viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=75#p494318. If he knew that HW was a wolf it would be a bit risky to start a vote count on him in the first round. But besides that, he was later satisfied with HW having 5 votes and had no intent on changing what appeared to be a HW lynch at the time.
Joe the Conqueror (not strong clear?) - based on this viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=75#p494315. With the vote count on HW still low, he could have tried to divert votes from him. Instead he followed Drago's logic. Seems innocent to me.

Eeveelution-Master - I'm hesitant to put him in the cleared category but he probably is since he increased HW's vote count from 5 to 6. On the other hand it may have looked that it was hopeless for HW at this point so EM could have joined the bandwagon to drive away suspicion. Probably overthinking here

Could go either way:

Cherrygrove - this is my first post of the game

The Others:
Drago_girl - viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=100 here appearing to defend HW and following his vote on DB who to me seemed to be innocent by this point
GP - viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=100#p494333 suspicious simply for defending HW and attacking Argo. But tbh the post had an air of lackadaisicalness so idk
Dare234 - Probably should be in "could go either way" but is BL "the others" because of this post viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31020&start=125#p494466 following Argo's last minute vote change.
SS - see other people's reasons
TT - I will elaborate later or maybe someone else will before I do.

Judging on exchanges between the players in the game, it seems to me that if one of Drago_girl or Twisted are wolves, the other is not. I think the same thing goes for SS and Dare. I can't see other such relations between players in my "others" list. Maybe between TT and SS but I'm not prepared to defend that.

EDIT: I know this is not allowed, but I'm just adding to a post I finished. Just read TT's post above. So actually if SS is a wolf then TT isn't and vice versa.

Oh well, seems like Argonaut wasn't a wolf. o_O
I'll wait a bit to vote, might read something interesting...

VOTE: SanguinaryScientist

Putting that in for now. I still like my hunch. I might change it, though. I'll need to read this day further.

I am actually incredibly wary of twistedturtwig right now, since he's basically leading the discussion and doing quite well at it.
Why does that worry me? That's what I do when I'm a wolf, and it works. I'll be willing to trust him for now, but...I don't think you're in the clear yet, twisted. Not by a longshot. No offence meant.

@ DNA



But seriously, just watch. When Sanguinary is revealed as a wolf, then you'll have full reason to trust me.

^This makes me believe that SS is, in fact, a wolf.

I also didn't vote for Haunted because I could feel how pissed he was at school when he was being bandwagonned last week. As a personal friend of his, I didn't want to add to that.

VOTE: SanguinaryScientist

One of the reasons I'm suspect of twisted. But SS is also on my list and it would be sweet if we did lynch him as a wolf. In that case I would be very sure that Dare and twisted are clear and it would certainly be very nice to confirm that TT is on our side. Additionally, my suspect list would be reduced to just two people (and possibly more after I do an analysis of this round). If it turns out SS is innocent my attention will most likely be turned on TT.

Therefore

VOTE: SanguinaryScientist

One more vote for Sanginary until the day is over. This has gone by pretty fast. Any last words Sanguinary? Going to provide a defense for yourself?

Priest, if you see this, and Sanguinary is a wolf, protect me tonight please!

I guess... I'll vote for SS, since there isn't many interesting things on the thread right now.

Vote: SanguinaryScientist